Week in Petroleum
Data through 2026-09-29 · published 2026-10-01 08:30 UTC · The weekly petroleum table EIA published from 2002 until 29 October 2025, rebuilt from the same public series and generated fresh each week.
The brief
Measured — generated from the table by fixed rule, no model in this path
diesel_clean_long — Diesel crack extreme without inventory overhang — cleanest long signal in the complex.
Brent fell by 6.01, to 114.0 Dollars per Barrel, a 1.5-sigma move for this series, leaving it at the 100th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- No 2 diesel fell by 0.15, to 6.38 Dollars per Gallon, leaving it at the 100th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- Refinery utilization fell by 1.50, to 92.5 Percent, leaving it at the 84th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
- WTI, Cushing fell by 3.21, to 96.2 Dollars per Barrel, leaving it at the 100th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years.
Sitting at an extreme
- Total gasoline sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (204.4 Million Barrels).
- Distillate fuel oil sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (105.2 Million Barrels).
- Propane/propylene sits at the 100th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (109.6 Million Barrels).
- SPR sits at the 0th percentile of the same-week window across 5 prior years (283.8 Million Barrels).
Signals firing
extreme — gasoline stocks seasonal percentile of 0 is below the 20 threshold
gasoline_undersupplied: Gasoline stocks < 20th seasonal percentile
extreme — distillate stocks seasonal percentile of 0 is below the 20 threshold
distillate_undersupplied: Distillate stocks < 20th seasonal percentile
extreme — US crude production seasonal percentile of 100 is at or above the 99 threshold
production_at_seasonal_high: Production at or above the 99th percentile of the same-week distribution (a seasonal high, NOT an all-time record)
extreme — Brent-WTI spread z-score of 3.72 exceeds the 2 threshold
spread_wide: Brent-WTI spread z-score above 2
mild — US refinery utilization (%) of 92.5 exceeds the 92 threshold
refinery_strong: Refinery utilization above 92%
mild — diesel crack z-score of 3.02 exceeds the 3 threshold
diesel_crack_extreme: Diesel crack z-score above 3
diesel_clean_long — Diesel crack extreme without inventory overhang — cleanest long signal in the complex.
The numbers those rules were tested against:
brent_wti_spread = 17.8brent_wti_zscore = 3.72crack_321_z = 2.41crack_diesel_z = 3.02crack_gasoline_z = 1.38crude_seasonal_pctl = 78.9crude_stock_wow = 0.922cushing_z = -0.54distillate_seasonal_pctl = 0gasoline_seasonal_pctl = 0production_seasonal_pctl = 100refinery_util = 92.5wti_price_pctl = 91.9
Not evaluated.- wti_mm_pctl not computed: CFTC.WTI.MM_Net has 0 weekly observations, needs 104 (~2y) before a percentile means anything
- brent_mm_pctl not computed: CFTC.BRENT.MM_Net has 0 weekly observations, needs 104 (~2y) before a percentile means anything
12 of the catalog's conjunctions were not evaluated — they need legs this panel does not measure.
The table
| Metric | Date | Value | Change | y/y | Units |
|---|
| Stocks |
| Crude oil (excl. SPR) | 2026-09-25 | 427.32 | w/w 0.922 | 10.774 | Million Barrels |
| Cushing, OK | 2026-09-25 | 24.301 | w/w 0.553 | 0.834 | Million Barrels |
| Total gasoline | 2026-09-25 | 204.362 | w/w -1.684 | -16.332 | Million Barrels |
| Distillate fuel oil | 2026-09-25 | 105.18 | w/w -2.251 | -18.397 | Million Barrels |
| Propane/propylene | 2026-09-25 | 109.647 | w/w 1.777 | 6.271 | Million Barrels |
| SPR | 2026-09-25 | 283.767 | w/w -0.785 | -122.933 | Million Barrels |
| Supply |
| Crude production | 2026-09-25 | 13,955 | w/w 16 | 450 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Crude imports | 2026-09-25 | 5,698 | w/w -179 | -135 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Refinery utilization | 2026-09-25 | 92.5 | w/w -1.5 | 1.1 | Percent |
| Gasoline product supplied | 2026-09-25 | 8,689 | w/w -158 | 171 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Distillate product supplied | 2026-09-25 | 3,948 | w/w -27 | 331 | Thousand Barrels per Day |
| Retail prices |
| Regular gasoline | 2026-09-28 | 4.465 | w/w -0.013 | 1.347 | Dollars per Gallon |
| No 2 diesel | 2026-09-28 | 6.382 | w/w -0.147 | 2.628 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Heating oil (residential) | 2026-03-30 | 5.535 | w/w -0.031 | 1.865 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Propane (residential) | 2026-03-30 | 2.674 | w/w -0.004 | -0.016 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Spot prices |
| WTI, Cushing | 2026-09-29 | 96.16 | d/d -3.21 | 32.99 | Dollars per Barrel |
| Brent | 2026-09-29 | 113.96 | d/d -6.01 | 45.44 | Dollars per Barrel |
| Conventional gasoline, NY Harbor | 2026-09-29 | 3.329 | d/d -0.089 | 1.344 | Dollars per Gallon |
| No 2 heating oil, NY Harbor | 2026-09-29 | 4.789 | d/d 0.089 | 2.558 | Dollars per Gallon |
| Propane, Mont Belvieu | 2026-09-29 | 0.894 | d/d 0 | 0.216 | Dollars per Gallon |
Check it against the source
These figures come from the published series, not from transcribing anyone's PDF — so they can be checked against the originals directly:
Every sentence above the table was generated from the table by fixed rule — the lede is the largest move measured in units of that series' own recent changes, so a crude build and a rig move can be ranked against each other. Re-run it on the same date and the text is identical. Method:
methodology ·
how we checked it against EIA's final edition.